Dr. Juan's Blog

Feb 3, 2012

Well, the Republican Florida Primary is behind us and what a win for presidential hopeful Mitt Romney! He won in almost every category! He got the majority of Latinos (even though most say Gingrich has a more compassionate immigration reform plan); he won among women voters (not surprising with all the attacks to Gingrich from his former wife); Gingrich only got the most conservative of the conservatives, according to exit polls. 

So, is it over? Does Romney have the nomination? Not quite, in my opinion.

Many have tweeted me asking can Gingrich win in Nevada? Probably not. Nor Colorado, nor Minnesota, nor Missouri, nor Maine, nor Arizona. As a matter of fact, Romney will probably win in most of the February Republican Caucuses and Primaries. Romney now has momentum and many of these states tend to support middle-of-the-road Conservative candidates.

Let's look at some facts about upcoming state Caucuses and Primaries.

Nevada is always thought of as a battleground state in the November election. Nevada has voted for the winning presidential candidate in 10 out of the the 11 last elections! Romney won in the Caucuses in 2008 with 51% of the vote. (Remember that 26% of caucus goers in 2008 were Mormon like Romney!) Obama beat McCain in 2008 in Nevada with 55%-43%. 

Colorado was won by Obama too, 54%-45%, in the November general election. This state had previously only voted for a Democrat twice since 1952! … Johnson and Clinton … Mitt Romney won the caucuses in 2008 with 60% and will probably win again this year.

Minnesota is one of the most liberal states in the US but it is also a very unpredictable state, even eclectic at times. No Republican has won Minnesota since Nixon, in 1972. Obama won over McCain but with just a 10% margin. 

The Missouri Primary had been the great predictor of the next president since 1904, (except in 2008 and 1956). Missouri voted for the next president every time except when its voters selected Adlai Stevenson over Dwight Eisenhower and McCain over Obama. 

Maine has been carried by Democrats for five consecutive elections though this state had been known for years as a very Republican-leaning state. Let's see if a Romney middle-of-the-road Conservative can get the Maine vote. It will be very hard for Gingrich to win here!

Arizona has become a battleground for immigration issues in the last few years. (It is interesting that one of the most innovative states in US-Mexico relations is now thought of as one of with the most hard-line laws on immigration.)  Though McCain beat Obama in Arizona , 54%-45%, it is hard to know how this state will vote in this year's Arizona primary. 

Now, to answer the question regarding Gingrich -- once we get into March, things can change. If Newt Gingrich can just show he is still competing, he could get momentum again in March. He has politically resurrected several times in his life and many believe we should not count him out yet!! 

Is Gingrich right that now there "are only two candidates competing"? Should Ron Paul and Rick Santorum give up???  

Let's watch the Nevada Primary together on Saturday! I will be on CNN Espanol from 7-9pm EST (6-8pm CT) please post your comments on Facebook and Twitter at @HernandezJuan so I can include on CNN!!!

Saludos.

Juan Hernandez

Twitter: @HernandezJuan